The Importance of Education & Training in the World of Crowd Safety
Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM FIPM FHEA MAE
Writing exclusively for Global Crowd Management Alliance® (GCMA)
“The prudent person foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.”
-Proverbs 22:3
I thoroughly enjoyed the first GCMA webinar, "How to Write an Honest Crowd Management Plan...That Actually Works"! The global crowd safety expertise around the virtual table focused on the "starting with a blank piece of paper" approach to crowd safety planning. The panel all added their considerable experience to the debate, but the webinar ran out of time just as the difficult questions were being asked, namely around the inevitable conflict of interest:
If your paycheck depends on an event going ahead but you have safety concerns, can you afford to walk away?
Do you stay and try to work with the resources and budget available? Do you try to make the best of a bad job, or stop the event (easier said than done)? How do you balance the risk of reputational damage and loss of income against the risk to the crowd? You need to consider the consequences of being involved with an event that goes wrong, the balance of the risk against the reward. If things do go wrong, what is the cost to you, your organisation and your reputation? Part of this balancing act is the safety budget.
Crowd Management as Insurance
We often hear colleagues state that they had to fight for the safety budget on a specific project. The core of this problem is that crowd safety does not make a profit. So, how do you justify your crowd safety plan and its costs? You could outline the cost of litigation that would far outweigh any expenditure on safety. Consider the station nightclub fire in the U.S. February 2003: As of September 2008, at least $115 million in settlement agreements had been paid, or offered, to the victims or their families by various defendants. Outline the cost of safety against the cost of litigation. Sell your services the same way you would sell an insurance policy. Ask your client to consider the enhanced customer experience of a well organised and managed event and the profitability of future events.
The Blank Piece of Paper
Another point raised in the online seminar was that each event “starts from a blank sheet”. I would argue that you should always start with a risk assessment. This is an assessment that is based on your experience of; crowd safety, crowd management, the site, the event, the organiser, your budget and the risks of your involvement in any specific project, with any specific client. Consider your own reputational risk – what happens if you have to walk away due to lack of support, budget and resources?
Crowd Risk Assessments
We have developed a suite of tools for crowd risk analysis and run a range of crowd safety courses around the world. At the start of each training, we always ask this question:
How many of you have, at the end of your event thought, “We were lucky that time.”
Usually most attendees will admit this, which is why they attend the courses. We hope that one day the room will be silent, because successful crowd management should never feature luck or chance. Thorough planning, preparation and risk management keeps crowds safe in places of public assembly, with crowd risk analysis, an understanding of crowd behaviour and the awareness, mitigation, and management of crowd risks.
“Education is when you read the fine print. Experience is what you get if you don't.”
-Pete Seeger
On June 17th, 2021, the Manchester Arena bombing report was published, with the recommendation to make the duty of care for all patrons’ safety into legislation. During the inquiry, the subject of risk assessment was scrutinised, which highlighted the need to improve our methodology and understanding of crowd dynamics in built and complex spaces.
The Science of Crowd-related Risks
Over thirty years ago, the problem with writing crowd risk assessments became apparent. The templates were derived from static systems! This included stress loading on temporary demountable structures, where tolerances and breaking points could be tested to the point of destruction. However, you cannot test a crowd to destruction and the crowd is dynamic, not static.
When the various authorities were asked:
“Why are you using this method for crowd risk assessment?”
The typical response, a phrase that you should question whenever you hear it, was:
“Because we’ve always done it this way.”
It is now known that there are better ways to assess and document crowd-related risks.
The Crowd Risk Analysis Suite of Tools
Five core tools of the crowd risk analysis suite are identified below. They were all designed to codify tacit knowledge by taking information from peoples’ experiences and converting this information into a series of pictures.
1. DIM-ICE
The DIM-ICE risk model is based on the research of past disasters and case studies. Designed to collect and collate information, then assemble it into a format (the matrix of boxes) that allows others to see the potential risks. As a communication tool, it serves to focus a multi-agency group on the factors which influence crowd behaviour (Design, Information and Management), the phases of crowd behaviour (Ingress, Circulation and Egress) and the modes of behaviour (normal and emergency).
This allows the user to outline the critical elements of a site/venue/event. However, you should not put an entire site in a DIM-ICE model (a mistake often made when this is used for the first time). The DIM-ICE matrix is a shorthand version of elements of the crowd management plan.
2. Crowd Dynamics
Crowd dynamics relates to crowd density, the crowd flow and the spaces used by crowds. For example; static spaces, dynamic spaces and contingency spaces. How to produce maps, plans, and diagrams for all three classifications of space; Spaces where the crowds are not moving e.g. spectating or viewing an event; Spaces where the crowds are moving, so you may need to monitor or regulate crowd flow and crowd density. Finally, what spaces might be needed in the event of an emergency to move the crowd away from a given threat, or to hold the crowd until the threat is neutralised?
3. RAMP Analysis
This is an acronym for routes, areas, movement, and people/profile/expectations of the crowd. We recommend six route diagrams: two routing diagrams (normal and emergency for ingress, for circulation and for egress. For areas, outline the spaces used for static crowds, dynamic/moving crowds and contingency spaces for emergency access and decanting the crowd during an incident. Review the movement of the crowds, create a graph of the arrival or departure profile over time (number of people up the side axis, and time along the bottom axis). For the people/profile/expectations, review related sites or similar events. What is known about the history or demographics of this crowd? What is the anticipated or expected behaviour of this crowd?
4. Risk and Congestion Mapping
This is a set of visual site diagrams detailing the risks of congestion. The diagrams show location, time, duration and severity of risk. Typically, these are coloured red, amber (orange) and green – like traffic lights.
5. Strategy and Tactics – Matrix Approach
The decision support tools use a matrix approach for assessing any one set of variables against another. It could be a risk against congestion, weather against communications, or crowd event type against congestion. There are multiple ways of using this approach. For example, to determine the different responses and reactions to a given threat at various locations around your site.
These tools are not simply academic research; they are practical, developed from real-world applications. They have had decades of use, not just by us but by over 10,000 learners that have passed through our courses (both face to face and online) over the last 30+ years. The UK College of policing adopted these tools as mandatory training for all UK Public Event Commanders (the PEC’s course) and these techniques are used for strategic and tactical decisions.
To consolidate the learning, we have documented over one hundred case studies where these tools could have been applied to assess the risks and prevent major incidents. We use these case studies to teach our learners how to evaluate specific crowd risks at their own sites.
In summary, ensuring your clients’ personnel have access to the most up-to-date knowledge through proper education and training is not just the ethical thing to do, it’s also low-cost insurance for them and their organisation.
Author’s Bio: Keith has consulted on some of the world’s largest, and most challenging crowd safety projects. He developed and delivers crowd safety and crowd risk analysis courses from Level 3 through to Level 7 (MSc).
The courses are attended by; event organisers, police, first responders, emergency planners, city authorities, building control officers, licensing officers, architects, event managers, security companies, venue operators and consulting engineers.
In 2019, he moved the entire course series online (GKSed.com) for international audiences. Last year, over 1,000 learners accessed the online courses.
One of Keith's courses is mandatory training for UK Police Public Event Commanders (PECs).
Find out more about the work of Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM FIPM FHEA MAE, here: www.CrowdRisks.com